The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, said Monday that rebuilding depleted global oil inventories could take up to two years, warning that supply pressures will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns to energy markets.
Amin Nasser made the remarks at the Energy Intelligence conference in London, speaking publicly for the first time since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in late February. "Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify. Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years," Nasser said, according to multiple reports of his speech.
The conflict has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that typically handles approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. According to Nasser, nearly 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the military strikes began. To offset that shortfall, over 1 billion barrels have been released from global reserves, including more than 300 million barrels from strategic reserves. However, Nasser stated that much of the remaining 6 billion barrels in storage is "not practically available," as up to 90% is either in pipelines or required to maintain minimum operating volumes for storage tanks.
Nasser's assessment comes days after the Group of Seven countries agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves, following pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. The G7 comprises France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with France currently holding the group's presidency. The European Union also participates in G7 meetings. Despite these releases, Nasser emphasized that the global energy system is already straining under the weight of lost supplies and disrupted logistics.
To manage the crisis, Saudi Arabia is pursuing alternative export routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Nasser noted that the country's East-West pipeline, which moves oil to Red Sea terminals and has a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, has not been interrupted. From those Red Sea terminals, oil can move northbound through the Suez Canal or southbound through the Bab El-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia also maintains storage at the Egyptian port of Sidi Kerir. Nasser said Aramco is studying additional routes and considering expanded overseas storage to cover short-term disruptions. According to one source, Nasser suggested that without the East-West pipeline, Brent crude futures would have reached $200 per barrel; as of Monday, Brent crude futures with December expiry traded at $102.92 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia's maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels per day could be made available within days, Nasser indicated, citing the country's intact strategic reserves and system flexibility. However, he cautioned that meeting inventory replenishment targets while satisfying current demand would require an additional 2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months, a heavy burden on global supply chains already under stress.
On Monday, security incidents continued to underscore the volatility in the region. A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and instructed to turn back or risk being targeted, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre, a maritime security alert service. The tanker complied, with the incident occurring approximately 11 nautical miles north of Oman's port city of Khasab. Despite such disruptions, Middle East crude exports rose on Monday, with flows through both the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline reportedly trending higher. Oil prices were mixed: U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with November expiry fell 0.4% to $90.76 per barrel, while the international Brent benchmark rose 0.7%.
