President Donald Trump said Saturday that he expects to be blamed if Republicans lose the midterm elections on November 3rd, even as he campaigns intensively to prevent that outcome. Speaking at a rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, Trump acknowledged the asymmetry of political credit and blame. "If we don't win the midterms, they're going to blame me," Trump said. "You know that. And if we do win them, I will get no credit whatsoever."
Despite his pessimistic framing, Trump told the crowd he is working hard to secure a Republican victory. "But I'm working my ass off," he said. "You better get out there and vote." A person familiar with Trump's preparations said the president is in "grind it out mode" ahead of the midterms and is prepared for the worst-case election outcome.
Trump is attempting to defy historical trends that typically punish the sitting president's party in midterm elections. To motivate voters, Trump closed his hour-and-a-half-long speech with an unusual incentive: a promise that voters who help preserve the Republican majority in both the House and Senate will receive $5,000 checks. The estimated total cost of this proposal is $1.3 trillion. Trump has been maintaining a frenetic campaign schedule, visiting seven different states since the start of October.
Trump's approval rating presents a significant headwind for Republican candidates. According to NBC News polling averages, only 38% of Americans approve of Trump's performance in office, while 59% disapprove. CNN data analyst Harry Enten characterized Trump's standing as "laughably bad," noting that Trump has the lowest pre-midterm approval rating of any president in recorded history. Pew Research found Trump's net approval at minus-38, with other recent polls from Ipsos, CNN, and the Associated Press showing net approvals of minus-33, minus-34, and minus-38 respectively. No other president facing a midterm election had a net approval below minus-31, according to Enten's analysis.
On Saturday, Trump disputed the notion that his popularity has declined. He posted on social media that the claim he is in disfavor represents a "false narrative," and he played a CNN clip at the rally showing that his support among MAGA supporters remains nearly unanimous and unchanged since the 2024 presidential election. Trump also used portions of his address to recount what he considers his major accomplishments, citing a rise in median household income during his first year in office and a drop in the nation's poverty rate.
Trump's decision to campaign in Tennessee—a deep-red state expected to deliver sweeping Republican victories—reflected his stated goal of rewarding areas that have supported him consistently. Trump won Tennessee in all three of his presidential campaigns. The Clarksville rally took place in a northern Tennessee county that Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024. Acknowledging the state's strong Republican lean, Trump said of the local congressional candidates: "These guys are all going to win. These congressmen are phenomenal. So, I'm saying, 'What the hell am I doing in Tennessee?'" He answered his own question by saying he wanted to "reward the places that have automatically treated you well."
Republican officials defended Trump's campaign strategy as sound. Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tennessee, said before Trump took the stage that rallies energize the Republican base, which is essential for midterm election success. "It rallies the base," Burchett said. "And that's really what we've got to see in a midterm election. That's what you've got to have: the base." Trump originally planned to attend the Georgia-Alabama football game in Alabama later on Saturday but canceled that appearance as Hurricane Isaias approached the region.
