A new poll shows California voters increasingly oppose Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires, marking a notable shift as voters head to the polls on Nov. 3. According to the California Post poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, 52.6% of voters oppose the measure, 34.5% support it, and 11.5% remain undecided. The findings contrast with a Citrin Center-Politico poll released the week prior, which found California voters narrowly favored the measure with 46% supporting it and 43% opposed.
Pollster John McLaughlin attributed the shift in sentiment to voter skepticism about how state politicians would use tax revenue and concerns about the measure's language. "Voters just don't trust Sacramento politicians when it comes to taxes," McLaughlin said. "However, the message that Prop 40 was poorly written and that there's a loophole which could raise taxes on many more people than just billionaires is resonating." He added that voters increasingly understand the tax would not be a one-time levy but would recur annually on many more residents than originally promised.
Proposition 40 would impose a 5% wealth tax on the net worth of California residents with assets exceeding $1 billion, targeting an estimated 200 to 255 billionaires in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Proponents, including the labor union SEIU United Healthcare Workers West and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, say the measure would help offset federal healthcare funding cuts and support education and food-assistance programs. The initiative's backers project it would raise roughly $100 billion for the state. Opponents, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, have warned the tax could drive wealthy residents out of state, threatening California's tax base and economy.
Several high-profile billionaires have already moved out of California or positioned themselves to do so before the tax's residency cutoff date of Jan. 1, 2026. Google co-founder Larry Page, with an estimated net worth of $260 billion, relocated his family office and associated business entities to Delaware in late December 2025 and acquired two premier estates in Miami for a combined $173.4 million. Sergey Brin, the world's fourth-richest person with a net worth around $267 billion, has spent more than $100 million fighting the measure through the political action committee Building a Better California, which has raised over $333 million in opposition funding. According to an analysis by Fortune, just four departed tech leaders—Page, Brin, venture capitalist Peter Thiel, and former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick—would have collectively owed approximately $29 billion under the tax, representing more than a quarter of the measure's projected $100 billion revenue before ballots are counted.
Other billionaires have taken different approaches to address the potential tax. Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the world's sixth-richest person with a net worth exceeding $220 billion, struck a deal with Meta's board on Wed. Oct. 22 to help him pay the potential tax without losing his majority ownership stake. Under the arrangement, Zuckerberg can sell a new class of non-voting shares to cover any wealth tax liability. He has committed to remaining in California for eight years unless "material unforeseen circumstances" make it "prudent or advisable" for him to relocate. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, facing a potential tax liability exceeding $8.5 billion, told Bloomberg he is "perfectly fine" with the proposal and does not plan to leave.
Voters will decide among competing ballot measures on Nov. 3. In addition to Proposition 40, voters will consider Propositions 41 and 42, which are backed by opponents of the billionaire tax and could prevent it from taking effect if either receives more votes than Prop 40. Prediction markets currently give Proposition 40 less than a 30% chance of passage, though traditional polling shows a tighter race. A University of California Berkeley poll conducted in September found 45% of likely voters supporting the measure and 42% opposed, though that three-point advantage has narrowed significantly from a 19-point margin in March 2026.
