Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a final campaign push in his home province of Alberta on Thursday and Friday, warning voters that a separation referendum scheduled for Monday represents a dangerous gamble at a time of acute threats to Canadian sovereignty.
Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, addressed large pro-Canada rallies in Calgary on Thursday and Edmonton on Friday, drawing crowds estimated at about 5,000 people. Speaking directly to Albertans' concerns, Carney acknowledged that "the frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real," noting that Ottawa had historically made the province feel "like our resources weren't our own." Yet he urged voters not to channel those grievances into a separation vote, framing the referendum as poorly timed given escalating international tensions.
"This referendum comes at the worst possible time," Carney told the Calgary rally. "The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us." Although Carney did not explicitly name the United States or President Donald Trump in that passage, he has done so in prior speeches. His warning comes as Trump wages a trade war with Canada and has repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st U.S. state. Carney urged Albertans not to view the vote as a way to "send a message" to Ottawa, cautioning that a separation vote would "lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty."
Monday's referendum is not a direct vote on independence. Alberta voters will instead decide whether to instruct the provincial government to begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation from Canada. Alberta, which sits atop the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves, has long feuded with federal governments—particularly Liberal administrations—over energy and environmental policies. Carney has sought to break that pattern, fast-tracking the proposed Pacific Link pipeline to the Pacific Coast, which he said would create more than 140,000 jobs and reduce Canada's economic dependence on the United States. His largest applause came when he emphasized how the pipeline would lessen reliance on U.S. markets.
On Friday, Carney appeared alongside Alberta's conservative Premier Danielle Smith at a rally in Red Deer, presenting a rare show of unity between a Liberal prime minister and a conservative provincial leader. Smith, who called the referendum despite personally opposing independence, praised Carney for improving federal-provincial relations after years of tension under his predecessor Justin Trudeau. "I think what we can agree on is that we have had some real change in the last 18 months," Smith said. Smith noted that Carney had substantially addressed seven of nine federal laws Alberta opposed and cited cooperation on the Pacific Link pipeline.
Separation supporters disputed claims of progress. Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, dismissed the agreements between Carney and Smith as "basically pinky promises" burdened with too many conditions. Keith Wilson, another Let Alberta Decide leader, rejected Carney's argument that global instability made this the wrong time for the vote, saying "The worst timing for this, why? I don't understand what's the logic."
Recent polling cited by Smith showed 22 percent of Albertans support separation, a figure she characterized as still too high. Smith faces internal pressure from separatists within her governing United Conservative Party. Former Premier Jason Kenney attributed the movement's growing influence within the party to activists angered by COVID-19 restrictions, some of whom embraced separatism and conspiracy theories. Outside the Edmonton rally Friday, independence supporters waved flags and held signs opposing Carney's message.
Federal Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, Carney's chief political rival, also urged Albertans on Friday to remain in Canada, saying "Don't leave your fellow Canadians behind. Lock arms with them." Some Albertans who oppose independence expressed frustration with Smith for calling the vote. Retired Calgary resident Deb Lee, who voted in advance to remain in Canada, called the referendum "a travesty" for putting the province and country "through this when such a small portion of people are rabble rousing and saying they want to separate from Canada."
